This series was constructed by the Bank of England as part of the Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data project by combining data from a number of academic and official sources. For more information, please refer to the Three Centuries spreadsheet at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/research-datasets. Users are advised to check the underlying assumptions behind this series in the relevant worksheets of the spreadsheet. In many cases alternative assumptions might be appropriate. Users are permitted to reproduce this series in their own work as it represents Bank calculations and manipulations of underlying series that are the copyright of the Bank of England provided that underlying sources are cited appropriately. For appropriate citation please see the Three Centuries spreadsheet for guidance and a list of the underlying sources.

Quarterly average. This series was constructed by the Bank of England as part of the Three Centuries of Macroeconomic Data project by combining data from a number of academic and official sources. For more information, please refer to the Three Centuries spreadsheet at https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/research-datasets. Users are advised to check the underlying assumptions behind this series in the relevant worksheets of the spreadsheet. In many cases alternative assumptions might be appropriate. Users are permitted to reproduce this series in their own work as it represents Bank calculations and manipulations of underlying series that are the copyright of the Bank of England provided that underlying sources are cited appropriately. For appropriate citation please see the Three Centuries spreadsheet for guidance and a list of the underlying sources.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Averages of business days. Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Calculated from data provided by the Wall Street Journal. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Data prior to August 2, 2006, were provided by the New York Times. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

View the average 10-year expectation for the inflation rate among market participants, based upon Treasury securities.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

The basic type of selected bond is analogous to conventional Treasury coupon issues: a bond that pays a fixed semiannual nominal coupon denominated in U.S. dollars until maturity, when the principal is returned. The HQM yield curve uses data from a set of high quality corporate bonds rated AAA, AA, or A that accurately represent the high quality corporate bond market. For more information see https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/corp-bond-yield/Pages/Corp-Yield-Bond-Curve-Papers.aspx

The spot rate for any maturity is defined as the yield on a bond that gives a single payment at that maturity. This is called a zero coupon bond. Because high quality zero coupon bonds are not generally available, the HQM methodology computes the spot rates so as to make them consistent with the yields on other high quality bonds. The HQM yield curve uses data from a set of high quality corporate bonds rated AAA, AA, or A that accurately represent the high quality corporate bond market. The HQM methodology projects yields beyond 30 years maturity out to 100 years maturity to get discount rates for long-dated pension liabilities. Visit the Treasury (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/economic-policy/corp-bond-yield/Pages/Corp-Yield-Bond-Curve-Papers.aspx) for more information.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland estimates the expected rate of inflation over the next 30 years along with the inflation risk premium, the real risk premium, and the real interest rate. Their estimates are calculated with a model that uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations. For more information, please visit the <a href="https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-expectations#background">Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland<a/>.

The Federal Reserve Board has discontinued this series as of October 31, 2016. More information, including possible alternative series, can be found at http://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h15.html. Rate paid by fixed-rate payer on an interest rate swap with maturity of ten years. International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA®) mid-market par swap rates. Rates are for a Fixed Rate Payer in return for receiving three month LIBOR, and are based on rates collected at 11:00 a.m. Eastern time by Garban Intercapital plc and published on Reuters Page ISDAFIX®1. ISDAFIX is a registered service mark of ISDA. Source: Reuters Limited.

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury (constant maturity) yields: Positive values may imply future growth, negative values may imply economic downturns.

View the spread between 10-Year and 3-month Treasury Constant Maturities, which is used to predict recession probabilities.

Series is calculated as the spread between 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity (BC_10YEAR) and Effective Federal Funds Rate (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EFFR). Starting with the update on June 21, 2019, the Treasury bond data used in calculating interest rate spreads is obtained directly from the U.S. Treasury Department (https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield).

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

Yield to maturity on accrued principal. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, are securities whose principal is tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). The principal increases with inflation and decreases with deflation. When the security matures, the U.S. Treasury pays the original or adjusted principal, whichever is greater. Copyright, 2016, Haver Analytics. Reprinted with permission.

The FOMC has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (central bank liquidity swaps) with certain foreign central banks to help provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets. These swaps involve two transactions. First, when the foreign central bank draws on the swap line, it sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is placed in an account for the Federal Reserve at the foreign central bank. This line in the statistical release reports the dollar value of the foreign currency held under these swaps. Second, the dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account for the foreign central bank at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time as the draw on the swap line, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction in which the foreign central bank is obligated to repurchase the foreign currency at a specified future date at the same exchange rate. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays a market-based rate of interest to the Federal Reserve. Central bank liquidity swaps are of various maturities, ranging from overnight to three months.

The FOMC has authorized temporary reciprocal currency arrangements (central bank liquidity swaps) with certain foreign central banks to help provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets. These swaps involve two transactions. First, when the foreign central bank draws on the swap line, it sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is placed in an account for the Federal Reserve at the foreign central bank. This line in the statistical release reports the dollar value of the foreign currency held under these swaps. Second, the dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account for the foreign central bank at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time as the draw on the swap line, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction in which the foreign central bank is obligated to repurchase the foreign currency at a specified future date at the same exchange rate. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays a market-based rate of interest to the Federal Reserve. Central bank liquidity swaps are of various maturities, ranging from overnight to three months.

Other loans is the sum of "Primary credit," "Secondary credit," "Seasonal credit," "Primary dealer and other broker-dealer credit," "Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility," "Credit extended to American International Group, Inc.," "Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility," and "Other credit extensions.